Monday, January 26, 2009

Week 20 (continued)

We're down to one final game, and the after 845 we've picked already how much could the Super Bowl really matter to our pool? Turns out, a lot.

Chris, Rob, Lonnie, Cullen and Bob all have a chance to win the final week. And if that weren't enough drama, Rob, me and Kristy are fighting for second and third. I've said it before, I'll say it again: This is crazy, this is crazy, this is crazy ...

OK, first the simple part: Chris has wrapped up the overall title. Turns out, Rob couldn't have caught him last week no matter what he did because Chris picked Pittsburgh over San Diego two weeks ago. I had figured his score with him picking the Chargers because he took San Diego in his e-mail picks, but he changed it to the Steelers in a text he sent me. How could I have messed that up? Well, I didn't see it because he put a space between his text paragraphs (who does that in texts? Oh, I know - people who went to high school in the 1980s) and I never read the rest of it until he told me to.

That might make Rob feel better, except he changed his pick to Baltimore over Pittsburgh in an attempt to catch Chris, and missing that game means if he misses the Super Bowl Kristy and I will move ahead of him by - get this - two two/thousandths of a point (.6581 to .6579). Dude, I'm really sorry, but it wasn't my fault.

Don't worry, it gets worse.

Kristy and I are assured of dropping this week no matter what happens Sunday, so we don't even have to pick it. Rob, though, must pick correctly or lose to us. And either way, we have to figure out how to break a tie between me and Kristy to decide who gets the overall coconuts, be they second or third. I have some ideas, but since I'm directly affected it wouldn't be sporting of me to offer them up. So ...

I know you guys don't really care since you're not in it, but some unbiased votes and/or ideas would be much appreciated. For the sake of our marriage.

Which brings us to the weekly win that's on the line. Rob, Chris and Lonnie are tied at 14-6, while Cullen and Bob stand at 12-8. And since the games count three each, all are alive and kickin'. A tie for the week is also very possible, so we're going to need a tiebreaker for that as well. Here's what I've come up with:

  • Total score.
  • Halftime score.
  • Guess correctly which songs Bruce Springsteen performs at halftime (the most right wins).
  • Number of receiving yards Larry Fitzgerald has
  • Number of touchdowns Ben Roethlisberger throws
Finally, according to my records the following people have not turned in their entry coconuts:

  • Chip
  • Chris
  • Dad
Correct? Once again, my address is: 1750 Meadowbrook Terrace, Hendersonville, NC 28791

Whew. I think that covers it. If I've made a mistake, please let me know ASAP. And, P.S., more than a couple of us never knew that when you guys came up with worst-week idea you meant worst week on your score, not worst week percentage-wise. Luckily, our overall standings wouldn't be influenced either way this year so I'm not going to worry about it. Next season, we'll revisit the topic again.

Standings
(Weekly win in bold; worst week in red)
  1. Chris 34-8, 37-14, 35-13, 28-19, 28-19, 32-10, 30-16, 29-17, 28-19, 26-18, 28-17, 37-11, 33-16, 39-19, 26-7, 13-7, 14-16, 26-12, 25-19, 14-6 (548-267, .672)
  2. Rob 31-11, 37-14, 31-17, 29-18, 29-18, 30-12, 29-17, 34-12, 29-18, 26-18, 31-14, 34-14, 28-21, 40-18, 19-14, 11-9, 18-12, 29-9, 18-26, 14-6 (529-272, .660)
  3. Ron 33-9, 38-13, 37-11, 29-18, 27-20, 26-16, 27-19, 34-12, 27-20, 26-18, 27-18, 35-13, 29-20, 42-16, 25-8, 12-8, 16-14, 26-12, 27-17, 8-12 (543-282, .658)
  4. Kristy 30-12, 39-12, 27-21, 31-16, 28-19, 31-11, 28-18, 32-14, 30-17, 26-18, 31-14, 35-13, 31-18, 37-21, 26-7, 13-7, 19-11, 20-18, 29-15, 3-17 (543-282, .658)
  5. Cullen 35-7, 38-13, 31-17, 28-19, 26-21, 25-17, 27-19, 32-14, 31-16, 26-18, 32-13, 35-13, 31-18, 40-18, 24-9, 11-9, 14-16, 25-13, 21-23, 12-8 (530-285, .650)
  6. Amy 32-10, 40-11, 29-19, 30-17, 28-19, 25-17, 24-22, 26-20, 30-17, 26-18, 34-11, 35-13, 31-18, 40-18, 22-11, 12-8, 17-13, 27-11, 25-19, 5-15 (533-292, .646)
  7. Lonnie 30-12, 37-14, 28-20, 27-20, 26-21, 24-18, 28-18, 31-15, 28-19, 26-18, 28-17, 35-13, 31-18, 39-19, 23-10, 9-11, 20-10, 22-16, 27-17, 14-6 (524-301, .635)
  8. Bob 31-11, 34-17, 31-17, 34-13, 26-21, 28-14, 24-22, 28-18, 34-13, 26-18, 27-18, 34-14, 26-23, 40-18, 22-11, 11-9, 16-14, 22-16, 22-22, 12-8 (506-295, .632)
  9. Cheryl 29-13, 35-16, 33-15, 26-21, 27-20, 27-15, 27-19, 30-16, 33-14, 25-19, 29-16, 30-18, 28-21, 36-22, 20-13, 12-8, 12-18, 22-16, 20-24, 11-9 (500-315, .613)
  10. Chip 33-9, 41-10, 32-16, 28-19, 30-17, 30-12, 25-21, 29-17, 28-19, 25-19, 27-18, 34-14, 34-15, 38-20, 18-15, 14-6, 0-30, 21-17, 0-44, 0-20 (487-314, .608)
  11. Lane 30-12, 34-17, 30-18, 28-19, 27-20, 28-14, 25-21, 25-21, 28-19, 23-21, 32-13, 29-19, 21-28, 30-28, 24-9, 12-8, 14-16, 14-24, 17-27, 8-12 (465-342, .576)
Schedule
NFL
Arizona vs. Pittsburgh

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is fucked man. So basically after you lied to me, now all you and Kristy have to do is show up and you win 2nd and 3rd. Really? This is after I waxed Kristy by 12 games last week. But i still can't seem to eclipse her. It seems like your ever evolving dropping a worst week is really paying off.

Lonnie said...

Lonnie Takes PITTSBURGH

* Total score = 38
* Halftime score = 17-7
* Guess correctly which songs Bruce Springsteen performs at halftime (the most right wins)= Born in the USA, Born to Run, Streets of Philadelphia, I'm On Fire, Badlands
* Number of receiving yards Larry Fitzgerald has = 87
* Number of touchdowns Ben Roethlisberger throws = 2

Unknown said...

Why would it make sense to drop the worst percentage-wise week if it didn't have the best overall effect on your total score? That would be a handicap and detriment to dropping the worst week. The whole idea was to give you a free pass and opportunity to get rid of an off week. Dropping the week that would have the best overall effect on your standing, while not explicitly stated, should have been implied. Otherwise, why bother dropping the week??

Ron Wagner said...

I agree with you. But that doesn't change the fact that a number of people - me included - never knew your definition. In fact, I haven't done it your way for two years, and nobody noticed that I was doing it "wrong" until Cullen recently.

Like I said, though, it doesn't matter anyway this season. I'm pretty sure nobody would be helped but Cullen, and he wouldn't be helped enough to pass anybody.

Ron Wagner said...

Lane is what we call "a trooper":

Pittsburg

Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

Ron Wagner said...

Amy takes PITTSBURGH

Anonymous said...

Here's the main thing that has been eating at me with the picks this year. In a picks race you should be sending in picks of who you think should win rather than picking the opposite of the person above you in the standings. The blog format has sort of compromised that. I know people have changed picks in the past but this season just felt a little shady in my opinion. I'm not even making an excuse for myself. I was terrible down the stretch due to no one's fault but my own. So there is no personal bias due to that in my stance.

For what it's worth, I scored this pool the year after Bob came up with dropping the worst week and I had the same interpretation that you drop the worst week in regards to overall standings. To do it any other way makes very little sense. Why has no one noticed? Because no one doublechecks their stuff other than me apparently. That's on them. You do the standings in good faith but anyone can make an error. Perhaps dropping the worst week is a lot of trouble but it's nice to know that if something happens to make you miss a week that you still have a chance in the overall standings.

Unknown said...

I've been thinking about the
"Chris' text" issue in regard to his changed pick and how it has affected the overall standings.

If I understand the situation correctly if Chris' pick had been reported properly two weeks ago, then Rob would have had no chance to win after that, correct?

If so, then my assumption is that Rob would not have changed his Baltimore/Pittsburgh pick, becuase his incentive at that point was to beat you and Kristy, not catch Chris.

Without changing that pick, he would have kept Pittsburgh, gotten the game win, and this issue would be moot: Rob would win the week and finish second overall because he'd be five games up on Ron and Kristy going into the Super Bowl, and Ron and Kristy would split the points for third.

In a court, that is what would end up happening, because failing to report Chris' pick change from two weeks ago was negligent and but for that mistake, Rob would have never changed his pick.

Also, I do agree with Cullen about picking against the person above you in a tight race. This same situation arose the last year I ran the pool between Cullen and Joe fighting for third place. I think that for the future, when we get down to the last two or three weeks and there is a close race for a points paying position, we should have those people pick blindly, to keep it on the up and up.

All moot now, it is just an idea for the future. I'll be more available next year if we want to do a two man "commissionership".

Anonymous said...

Arizona 26-24

Halftime score: PIT 14-9

Bruce: Glory Days, Born in the USA, Working on a Dream, Born To Run, Dancing in the Dark

Number of receiving yards Larry Fitzgerald has: 93

Number of touchdowns Ben Roethlisberger throws: 2

Ron Wagner said...

So I assume strong moral convictions will prevent Bob and Cullen will be taking the Steelers, because who would pick against the 7-point favorite in the Super Bowl?

Oh, I guess not.

For the record, I don't agree at all that there's something wrong with people changing their picks in an attempt to catch people ahead of them. Being able to do that adds a lot of spice to what could otherwise be a pretty boring final few weeks if you're behind and it also rewards people who pay attention and take the time to try to actually win.

And let's not forget, if you're ahead and you pick the games right it doesn't matter anyway. There's a reason Chris won - he seldom missed. The only thing I would have a problem with would be if someone who was ahead of someone else went and changed picks to match the picks of the person behind him or her so he or she would be impossible to catch. Luckily, nobody's been that sleazy.

And, to clear up one misconception, that one game wasn't enough for Kristy and I to get this close to Rob for the Super Bowl. We pulled this close because I hadn't yet counted this as our worst week.

Anonymous said...

You're right Ron. Upsets NEVER happen in the Super Bowl. Just because you blindly picked with the odds all year doesn't mean everyone has to. God forbid someone picks the team they WANT to win.

By the way, if it's so great to have people picking against your picks, then why do you wait so long to post yours? You need that extra time to get together a gameplan with Kristy so you can double your odds of winning? I have strong enough moral convictions to not change the rules midway thru a pool to help myself or my mate.

I offered some constructive criticism. You're the one who decided to be a prick about it. I won't be doing the pool next season anyway so it's all good. I'll let you get the last word in again as usual. Go ahead...

Lonnie said...

I need to change one of my song selections.

I am taking off Badlands and switching to WORKING ON A DREAM plus my originals.

Lonnie said...

I don't know why I am even doing this, SHE CAN"T WIN.

Cheryl's Picks

Total score: 27
Halftime Score: 10-7
Songs: Working on a Dream, Glory Days, Born to Run, Livin in the Future
Receiving Yards: 79
Touchdowns: 3

Anonymous said...

PITTSBURGH 24 arizona 20

14 to 10 Arizona

Fitzgerald 57

BEN 2 TD's

BRUCE
Radio Nowhere
Born to Run
Badlands
Working on a Dream
Dancing in the Dark
The Rising

Ron Wagner said...

Mike, I was making a joke to illustrate my point. I'm sorry it hurt your feelings, but for somebody who dishes so much out you sure have a helluva a time taking it.

And, for everyone else, I have never and would never do anything remotely dishonest to help me or anyone else get an unfair advantage. Feel free to check everything I've done this year for any inaccuracies or improprieties. It's all right there. Insinuating that I would do anything like that is pretty weak.

Oh, and thanks for ending the season on such a great note Mike.

Anonymous said...

I'm rooting for Lonnie to have won the final week. He nailed the halftime score.

Anonymous said...

Aww Ronnie-bear, c'mon baby you know I can't quit you. You know sometimes I black out when I drink my cough syrup and I get to slappin' you around a bit. But I do it cuz I love you. When this is all over I think we should get an apartment together and we'll look back on this and laugh.

For real though. My bad. I'm sure it's not the first time the famous Wagner sarcasm in print form has been misinterpreted.